🌱 The Grumpy Optimists #36
Our take on the outcome of COP26 and the usual climate news
Happy Monday all and welcome to another week! 👋
The second week of COP26 is over. The long-anticipated summit was earmarked by many as the last major hope we have to curb the rise in global temperatures and avoid the most catastrophic consequences of climate change. For some, it could be portrayed as a disappointing story of voluntary pledges, phasing down (not phasing out) fossil fuels, and creating a roadmap to keep warming below 1.5 degrees, without actually creating the policies to get there. For others, it's been two weeks with the spotlight on climate, trillions of investment and support pledged, and more progress on tackling climate than there was two weeks ago. Progress is being made but there is a hell of a lot left to do.
This week we look at the events from COP26, the Glasgow Climate Pact, and the pros and cons of the event. We also look at how the shipping industry is trying to decarbonise, and the winner of this year's environmental photography prize.
Thanks for reading. 💚
🌍 COP26: Week 2
COP26 came down to a tense finale in Glasgow this week, with talks extending into the weekend before the Glasgow Climate Pact was agreed late on Saturday. The key issues were around carbon markets, phasing out fossil fuels and financial help for poor countries to tackle climate change. Let's briefly look at those three issues.
Fossil Fuels
The Climate Pact explicitly looked to tackle the dirtiest fossil fuel, coal. A commitment to phase out coal was included in early negotiations but China and India dramatically opposed this late on Friday.
India and China rely heavily on coal and are grappling with energy issues, as well as a developing population where poverty eradication and growth are key. In the end, countries agreed to "phase down" rather than "phase out" coal. However, some have said that the focus on coal gives rich countries a free pass to continue producing and using oil and gas.
Carbon Markets
The final deal in the Pact was the formal adoption of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, allowing countries to partially meet their climate targets by buying carbon offsets. While controversial and with the potential for abuse and greenwashing, there is potential to legitimise the fast-growing offset market and unlock trillions in finance for protecting forests and renewable projects. The deal hopes to reward countries for keeping trees in the ground and put a price on natural assets.
Climate Justice
Lastly, one of the key sticking points was loss and damage, involving developed countries providing climate finance for developing countries. The intention is to help countries like the Maldives and Madagascar, who are already at risk from climate change, mainly due to historical carbon emissions by developed countries.
At the last minute, the UK, EU and US all watered down the Pact to exclude a separate loss and damage fund, instead creating workshops for climate resilience. The fear from the UK, US and EU is that a loss and damage fund would open up a legal case for historical emissions.
Cons - a #copout?
Progress, but enough? The pledges at COP26 have done enough to reduce projected emissions by 20%, but not the 45% needed to be on the pathway to net zero by 2050. Current pledges, if fulfilled, will only limit global warming to about 2.4C. Countries will meet again next year to begin plans to keep warming below 1.5 degrees. Is this too little too late?
There is also an over-reliance on voluntary pledges to tackle big problems like deforestation and climate finance. Only time will tell if these pledges will work, but if our past success is anything to go by, we may struggle.
It was also disappointing to realise that all of the emphasis on indigenous voices and views was more of a media storm than a presence at the negotiating table. Many activists have spent two weeks in Glasgow pouring their hearts out and giving inspiring speeches, only to realise that this may not have had the desired impact.
The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres sums up the events perfectly, saying the planet is "hanging by a thread". "We are still knocking on the door of climate catastrophe... it is time to go into emergency mode - or our chance of reaching net zero will itself be zero."
Pros
China
China also pledged more aggressive climate action as it agreed to work with the US to accelerate actions as well as cooperation on reducing methane. China is the world's largest GHG emitter and accounts for nearly a third of energy-related CO2 emissions. Its participation in the event is crucial to us keeping temperatures below 1.5 degrees. However, the focus was simply on implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, not amending China's current policies.
Optimism
While it’s easy to be negative about the outcomes of COP26, there is a hell of a lot to be optimistic about. We are closer to keeping temperatures below 1.5C than we were two weeks ago; trillions of dollars of finance have been committed to net zero; we have a major deforestation pledge to eradicate deforestation by 2030; and we have had 200 countries in the same room negotiating about one of the most important things facing the world today. It may not be perfect, but we cannot let perfect get in the way of being great. Because quite frankly right now, great, is better than nothing.
👀 Articles to read
🚢 Shipping industry sets sail to decarbonisation. Shipping accounts for 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions and is far off track from meeting the Paris climate agreement. Maersk, the world's largest shipping company, plans to fuel ships on carbon-neutral methanol to reduce the shipping industry's impact on the environment.
💭 Our thoughts? Ships operate in international waters (outside national laws), and so have found loopholes in climate regulations. This needs to change. We're not convinced that Maersk will be leading the way to decarbonising the shipping industry. This recent announcement seems to encourage the energy sector to produce more 'clean' fuels, rather than create a long-term solution for a more sustainable shipping industry. Decarbonising is not impossible, but this graphic shows why it's not as easy as sticking a big battery on a ship.
📷 Environmental Photographer of the Year 2021 Announced. 'The Rising Tide Sons' by Spanish photographer Antonio Aragón Renuncio won first prize, highlighting the rising sea levels in West African countries, which are forcing thousands of people to leave their homes. The winner of the Climate Action Prize, 'The Last Breath,' is worth checking out too.
Hungry for more on COP26?
✍️ COP26 keeps Paris Agreement alive, just. The commitments secured as part of the Climate Glasgow Accord mean it's still possible to stay within the 1.5°C target. The agreement came despite last-minute objections from China and India, two of the world’s largest emitters, who wanted the language on coal to be watered down.
🚫 Indigenous activists faced barriers to participation at COP26. Indigenous communities may have been more visible in the media coverage around the conference, but this is mostly performative. The vast majority were still excluded from decision-making and negotiations, despite being most at threat from the immediate impacts of climate change.
🇮🇷 Iran not signing climate agreement unless sanctions are lifted. Iran is the world's eighth-highest CO2 emitter, but its leaders are refusing to commit to reducing emissions. That is until the international community removes economic restrictions.
🤔 As you know, we like to make things as simple and easy to digest as possible, and part of that means pointing you in the direction of other useful resources. This Q&A-style article does an excellent job of answering some common questions about how discussions at COP26 will impact our everyday lives.
The Grumpy Optimists 💚