đ± The Grumpy Optimists #54
We have the solutions to tackle climate change, why aren't we deploying them quickly enough? What's the impact of the Ukraine crisis on our ability to phase out fossil fuels?
Happy Monday đ
We hope youâre all looking forward to the long weekend break over Easter (we certainly are!)
To get your four-day week off to a flying start, weâre giving you everything you need to know from the latest IPCC report (spoiler: we have all the solutions). We also look at the relationship between conflict and climate change - and specifically, the long-term impact which ongoing events in Ukraine could have on our efforts to cut emissions. Finally, is pizza more or less popular than onshore wind turbines?
Letâs dig in.
5 things you need to know about the latest IPCC Report
The IPCC released their third climate report this week. You may be asking, what is the difference between this one and the others they released? Letâs look to the words of Solitaire Townsend to make it easier.
IPCC 1 is, âwhat f*cked itâ,
IPCC 2 is âexactly how f*cked is itâ
IPCC 3 (the latest report) is âhow do we unf*ck itâ.*
Here are the key takeaways:
đ Global carbon emissions need to peak by 2025
In order to keep temperatures well below 2°C and work towards 1.5°C then global carbon emissions need to peak by 2025. Subtle reminder, thatâs just 3 and a half years from now!
đąïžÂ The end of coal
In order to cap emissions by 2025, the report called for an urgent shift away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy. The good news is that the cost of implementing renewable energy has fallen by 85% in the last decade.
đ” Investment
The cost of tackling climate change is often seen as a barrier to tackling climate change. As a result, investment in shifting to a low-carbon world is currently six times lower than it needs to be. But the good news is the cost is no longer seen as such a barrier, with low-carbon investment widely seen as a major opportunity to return profits and $150 trillion in assets committed to net zero. The bottom line is that taking on the challenge of climate change wonât cost the earth.
đČ Behaviour change
The report highlights the importance of social changes to curb emissions. Thatâs people like me and you opting for low carbon lifestyles, eating more plant-based food and reducing our demand for energy. Collective action combined with the affordability and access to low carbon options is a powerful tool in limiting emissions. It was not in the report but we can confirm that reading and most importantly sharing the grumpy optimists also counts as contributing to a low carbon lifestyle... đ
đ Carbon Removal is non-optional
Despite major societal shifts to cut emissions, including phasing out fossil fuels and promoting sustainable lifestyles, the report suggests that carbon removal is now non-optional to keep temperatures below 2 degrees. Companies such as Climeworks, who so suck carbon out of the atmosphere and turn it into stone are now crucial to limiting the impacts of climate change.
Some question whether weâre putting too much reliance on carbon removal, especially given that Climeworksâ latest plant, Orca, can only remove 4,000 tonnes of carbon per year and 11 billion tonnes of emissions per year in removals needed by 2050 (thatâs 2.75 million more plants).
However, the technology can quickly scale and the hope is that it can become more efficient and powerful in time, there is no reason to believe that 11 billion tonnes a year is not achievable. If SpaceX can land a rocket on a tiny floating platform in the middle of the ocean, we can scale one of the most crucial technologies of our generation. The good news is Climeworks just raised $650m to scale their technology.
The takeaway?
Weâre not all doomed. While the previous IPCC reports were alarming, this report highlights problems while also presenting solutions, itâs the optimistic part after the grumpy report if you will.
To echo the words of James Sykes, the most maddening element of our current climate situation is that we have all the tools and technology to combat climate change, we just donât seem to have the political will or economic incentive to employ it. The graph below shows the reduction potential of all of the technology currently at our disposal and thereâs so much more we can be doing.
Weâre optimistic, the report shows we have the tools and weâre optimistic that enough can be done to cut emissions. In future episodes, weâre interested in exploring what makes climate solutions work and how we learn from our success stories to build the playbook for climate action, more on that in the future. For now, letâs remain positive, we have the pieces, we just need the glue to put them together.
Ukraine and Climate Change: how are the two interrelated and why is it so important?
Russiaâs invasion of Ukraine has sent shockwaves across the world. No conflict - whatever the nature, motives or causes - takes place in a vacuum, and itâs inevitable in such an interconnected world that the impacts of any war will have a knock-on effect on our collective efforts to fight global issues.
Itâs clear this is no exception. The conflict in Eastern Europe has damaged already rocky relationships between key powers (relationships which are critically important in steering the ship away from climate catastrophe) - while US Climate Envoy John Kerry even argues it risks causing a diversion from the issue altogether.
It has also exposed significant vulnerabilities around energy security. How we chose to address these vulnerabilities has the potential to decide our fate when it comes to the future of our planet - but what are these challenges, and what choice do we need to make? Letâs get into some of the detail.
The wave of sanctions that the West has imposed upon Russia has exposed a hefty elephant in the room: Russia is a huge supplier of oil and gas - which many nations in Europe are dependent upon. The intent is clear - boycotting Russiaâs oil and gas not only upholds Ukraineâs sovereignty, it will cripple the Russian economy with the view to eventually stemming the war altogether (which seems to be working, if rumours of troops withdrawing over the last few days are to be believed).
The issue is that in their efforts to find quick alternatives to fill the energy gap and meet demand, governments have been scrambling to find other fossil fuels. The conflict has exposed vulnerabilities around energy security - particularly for the EU - where many member states have been blindly reliant on Russian supply for decades (if only theyâd listened to their former Climate Chief Connie Hedegaardâs warning, almost a decade ago). This has led to fears that the sudden fossil-fuel rush could significantly close the window we have to act if we are to avoid the very worst climate change. Check out the video below if youâre keen to hear more on this.
Moments of conflict such as these inevitably pass, but their impacts resonate for decades. The fighting may stop, but the decisions taken in these moments remain - their consequences manifest through other issues over time. Look no further than 9/11 and the impact the subsequent joint-allied invasion into Iraq continues to have on global geopolitics to this day.
Itâs difficult to see Ukraine as anything other than an impasse in the context of climate change. We have an opportunity to tackle two intersectional threats by condemning Russiaâs aggression at the same time as revitalising momentum in the climate fight by reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and fast-tracking the transition towards renewable energy.
Within a crisis, there is always opportunity. Itâs critical that we grasp the nettle - that we donât run back to fossil fuels and blow our chances of staying within already creaking climate targets. Instead, we must take this opportunity to stop propping up hostile states by leeching off their fossil fuels and launch into a rapid transition towards more secure, cleaner energy.
đ Things weâve enjoyed reading and watching this week
đ° Bloomberg on why the biggest crypto effort to end carbon offsets is backfiring.
𧔠A thread by Malachi Chadwick of things that are less popular than onshore windâŠand a video showcasing the love of wind turbines by children.
Thatâs all from us this week folks. Weâd love it if you could leave a comment and let us know if you prefer the longer, less often newsletter.
Also, let us know your thoughts on this weekâs blog post below. đ
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