⚡️ Why we're optimistic about innovation
This week we're inspired by a podcast, look to hemp for solutions and discuss the best way to get your Christmas tree...
Happy Monday. 👋
Welcome back to another episode of The Grumpy Optimists. This week, I (George) am digging into some optimism in the face of rather sub-par results from COP27 in the form of innovation and energy. We’ve also looked at the climate impact of the world cup, Morgan Stanley’s new $1bn decarbonisation fund and what is the best way to get your Christmas tree fix, don’t say we don’t cover it all!
Let’s dig in.
⚡️ Climate Optimism - Energy and Innovation
The reaction from our political leaders to climate action seems to be 🤷 ’meh’, and this was emphasised at COP27. That is to say, nobody is completely convinced that we’re taking action quickly enough. It’s probably true and it is most definitely how I feel most of the time.
However, before my cycle home from the office on Thursday evening, I went to choose a podcast and decided that Ed Milliband’s ‘It’s cheaper to save the planet than destroy it’ episode would be just what’s needed for a little bit of optimism, I wasn’t wrong. There are a number of things I took from the podcast that I think are worth sharing with you.
📈 We’re implementing renewables quicker and cheaper than we expect, every year.
The graph below from the IEA and a great post by Ramez Naam, show the magnitude of how quickly solar is being deployed around the world and how poorly we have estimated its deployment for 20 years.
We’ve seen the cost of renewables dramatically fall over the last 20 years thanks to innovation and rapid learning curves. In fact, every time we double the deployment of solar the costs fall by between 20-40%. That’s done enough to make new renewables cheaper than all new fossil fuels and around 90% cheaper than existing fossil fuels as per Kingsmill Bond.
The future of solar is really cheap and it’s now cheaper to save the planet than destroy it.
☀️ Solar energy is growing by 25% a year and doubling every 2-3 years.
Solar currently powers 3% of the world's energy and while it may not seem like much, solar is doubling every 2 to 3 years. That makes us just 5 doublings away from full renewable energy power - this is not likely, but it does show the power of compounding.
Why does 3% as a number matter? 3% as a number matters when we look at the past. Back in the early 1900s, peak horse demand was when cars were at 3% of deployment, and it only took a decade to shift from the car as an outlier to the car as a dominant force. This can happen with renewables too. The good news is that technological shifts and innovation can take place at a rate we underestimate.
If you’re looking for a brilliant video about our inability to predict the rate of technological evolution and clean disruption, check out this video from Tony Seba.
⛰ Fossil fuels peaked in 2019 - the transition is unstoppable.
Since 2019 we’ve effectively shifted from having to force innovation in the form of clean energy uphill to now letting gravity take over and moving to a role of removing blockages and allowing the water of opportunity to flow.
Those blockages often include political issues such as onshore wind farms in the UK.
I found this hard to write about but very easy to draw poorly below. 👇
🛢 Tackling supply-side decarbonisation?
Despite the growth of renewables, the push for electric vehicles and phasing out coal, our global emissions are higher than ever, but why? This is a question that Tzeporah Berman, the founder of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty asked herself and realised that there is no framework to stop the extraction and power of fossil fuels.
With over $11 million a minute provided in subsidies to fossil fuel producers, we have a major barrier that needs to be removed. In order to phase out fossil fuels, Tzeporah found that the falling costs of renewables would not be enough, and policy in the form of a treaty has to be created. Tzeporah believes that fossil fuels are today's weapons of mass destruction and should invoke the same level of threat as nuclear did in the creation of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty hopes to create one of the most powerful tools for limiting climate change and fossil fuel expansion we have in our arsenal. This gives me optimism for a way out of oil, gas and coal that is fair and just. Keep your eye out for more news as this grows.
💊 We’re shifting from climate pain to climate gain
Perhaps most importantly, and the part I’m most optimistic about, is that we’re shifting the perception of climate action from pain to gain - that’s not to say there won’t be a lot of pain along the way.
What was perhaps seen as a difficult global challenge that seemed impossible is now seen as an opportunity to create jobs, provide opportunities to developing countries and transition towards a better future for all.
In what is my favourite climate change-related meme below, it seems like the time when we’ve realised that creating a better, cleaner and more just world is positive for people, the planet and for even for business.
My key takeaway? Be positive about the future of the planet, about the rapid rise of decarbonisation and the fantastic people helping tackle such a massive problem.
You can listen to the podcast here.
👀 Articles to read
🏦 Morgan Stanley IM launches $1bn climate-focused private equity strategy. Morgan Stanley is investing in companies that will remove 1 gigaton of carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere by 2050 or prevent that amount from entering the atmosphere. Importantly, some of the executive's pay will be linked to the emission reductions their portfolio creates.
⚽ How true are the green claims of the 2022 world cup? Probably as accurate as their attendance figures, that is, not very. Alongside all the other issues surrounding the world cup in Qatar, there is the question of sustainability. The event is supposedly carbon neutral with Qatar offsetting its emissions, but leading scientists and athletes have questioned the science behind the calculations. Sport has a massive opportunity to create conversations around climate, instead, the games has shown that greenwashing exists on the biggest stage.
🇦🇺 Climate concern the main reason voters swung to independents in Australian federal election. A new study has found that the climate crisis was the main concern that caused Australians to switch votes to independent parties in the most recent election. More than half (58%) of Australians had become more concerned about climate change over the past two years, and nearly three-quarters (74%) believed governments should be doing more to address it. The results are from a unique ongoing study, known as Climate Compass.
🌿 Could hemp be a key tool in fight against climate change? Hemp (aka cannabis) has a bad rep but in fact, the fast-growing plant is believed to be twice as effective at absorbing and locking up carbon as trees. The CO2 is also permanently fixed in the hemp fibres which can go on to be used in textiles, medicines, and insulation for buildings.
🛢️ A disused oil rig recently became a British art installation. What will happen to the rest? Oil rigs are pretty hefty pieces of infrastructure and when they reach the end of their life, they are usually decommissioned and recycled, a process that can take up to seven years. Newsubstance, a Leeds-based creative studio, decided to do something different and create an installation with an ex-North Sea oil rig. ‘SeeMonster’, is an installation that the public could climb up and see wind sculptures, a waterfall, a tube slide, a tiny amphitheatre, dozens of plants, and impressive views both inland and out to the coast of Weston Super-Mare. SeeMonster was dismantled on the 21st of November and was the first installation of its kind. The installation is a powerful display of the future of oil and gas infrastructure, as part of history, not as functioning machines.
🎄 Sustainable Christmas Trees?
As Christmas approaches, you might be looking to buy one of the 8 million Christmas trees sold each year or use the one you’ve had in the loft for years, but what’s the most sustainable way to buy a tree?
Use what you have - reusing a plastic tree is much better for the environment and your pocket if you’ve already got one in the loft.
Buy a real one, but make sure it doesn’t end up in a landfill - this is where the methane emissions will be produced. A tree in landfill will create up to 6x more emissions than one that is recycled.
Perhaps you rent a tree? It’s pretty simple, it gets delivered, you enjoy it and then in January it gets collected and replanted.
That’s all from us this week folks, have a good one.
The Grumpy Optimists 💚